As well you may ask.
First to what I would expect someone who might have learnt from past mistakes should do in order to 'earn' leadership credentials in the current climate.
'SnapBack' would not be part of the vocabulary or the policy planning for a start. This should be an opportunity for leaders to review and redirect budget spending, rethink the sort of society we might aspire to be. For many years, I've engaged with the concept of 'human security', security that puts people first. An early proponent was Japanese foreign policy specialist and UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Professor Ogata Sadako who passed away last year. Human Security. If we spent less time, money and energy on war and more on people, communities, health, education, social welfare and so on, we might even minimise the need for war. I introduce Prof Ogata each year to students in my Peace Studies course, very few knew a Japanese woman was at the forefront of this policy proposal.
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| On a road to...(Ariake district) |
I've taught politics now for more years than I care to count; I have seen students learn, understand, modify their approach, change their views, in the space of two or three years. (Some who haven't either but that's for another time.) Look across the ditch, to NZ where the leader, Jacinda Ardern, has been genuine from the start, continued through, with consistency. It is possible.
Nonetheless, his polling* numbers suggest otherwise. Indeed, a number of leaders across the world, some data suggest, are experiencing something of a boost in polls or popularity as they are given the credit for navigating the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic.
(*I use polling in a professional sense, I don't use it as indicative of politicians' popularity or otherwise.)
Now, let us turn to Japan's PM Abe. The two PMs find themselves in similar circumstances; Abe has for several years now, been battling scandals on several fronts, largely favours for friends and acquaintances, government largesse, or corruption of the sort favoured by governments of today. Any one of the various scandals in past years would have forced his resignation, but he survives. Not only has he survived, he has succeeded in having the two-year-two-term norm of the LDP presidency (and effectively the prime ministership) extended to realise a personal aspiration of being Japan's longest-serving prime minister of the modern era.
Like Morrison, Abe was slowish to respond to the initial stages and like Morrison, arguably he was pressed into action and outdone by Japan's equivalent of Australia's state premiers, prefectural governors. It was the governors, notably Koike in Tokyo, the governors of Tokyo's surrounding prefectures of Chiba, Saitama and Kanagawa (which form part of the greater Tokyo commuter region--think Brisbane-Gold Coast or Sydney-Newcastle) and also Osaka and Hokkaido. There is a comparative study worth doing there, in the future. The governors ultimately forced Abe's hand on declaring a national state of emergency so they could respond locally; Abe's policy responses were also seen as ad hoc and impulsive. Chief among them was his sudden decision to close schools, (leaving many parents in a difficult position), his 'two masks per household' policy (at great expense) and initial plans of ¥300,000 in economic assistance to those in need, quickly being redrafted to give ¥100,000 to everyone. Like Morrison's promises of monetary compensation, the 'idea' is struggling under the weight of bureaucracy to be realised. Similarly, the masks were delivered well after people found ways to improvise, indeed starting a new fashionable wave and prefectural parochialism. In fact, it turns out that nowhere near the anticipated number of masks have been delivered and some premises have received more than one delivery.
Although Abe appears in daily media conferences, people have stopped listening to him. Conversely, the 'popularity' of the governors has risen, as they have taken on stronger leadership roles. In the interim, polling for Abe has been on the slide, in contrast to Morrison. It is an interesting conundrum. Both countries have had, arguably, reasonably controlled numbers in terms of cases and deaths, neither country reaching the horrific statistics of the US, UK and others. I suspect, a mere hypothesis at this time, that the media may have a role to play. The media environments are quite different in the two countries.
Just after I tweeted the thread on Morrison, a surprising opinion poll result* turned up for Abe. At the beginning of May, his popularity was on a downward trend, sitting in the low 40s. In this past week, the Mainichi poll put his support at 27%, a dramatic drop. It is only one poll. Ironically, it appears that it is not Abe's pandemic performance that is resounding through the populace but a scandal of equivalence some might say to those earlier in his term (but then, corruption is corruption, once you start 'grading' it, you are in trouble), an attempt to extend the tenure of one of his preferred public prosecutors, in blatant disregard of the separation of powers here in Japan, a concept taught in schools (and universities, specifically mine, in my class). What was the difference this time? Interestingly, a massive twitter hashtag campaign (which warrants a post of its own) which saw key members of the government cave on the changes to the legislation. Subsequently, it turns out the prosecutor in question was caught out, against all sorts of rules, not the least of which was semi-lockdown demands, of playing and betting on mahjong, with a couple of journalists. Gone.
(*I use polling in a professional sense, I don't use it as indicative of politicians' popularity or otherwise.) (^-^)/
Will Abe be able to walk back from this one? At the moment it looks unlikely. He is also, at this stage, unlikely to resign but might see out his current term (until 2021). Unless, other unforeseen events emerge.
Like Morrison, there is hollowness about Abe's politics, his 'leadership' characteristics (one might be trying to avoid the use of 'qualities'), a product of the modern, professional political class. And yet despite the similarities in their present circumstances, their trajectories are heading in different directions, for now.
Is our politics broken? Perhaps, but not beyond repair, I would like to think, dare to hope.
Modern politicians think democracy means capturing the most votes, they justify their actions on the basis that 'we were elected, we got the votes'. Democracy however, is an ongoing process, a dialogue if you will, between voters and the people they elect. So voters too have a responsibility to keep their elected representatives accountable. It is time to reinvigorate the social contract...but that is a topic for another post.
These are notes on the way to a larger project to investigate our politics. These are the things that keep me occupied between classes and meetings, living and breathing, and spending time in a semi-lockdown environment (extended).
Thank you for arriving at this point. There is more to think about, more to come.
