Life in a semi-lockdown scenario ~~six~~

...are we there yet?

After that short detour on leadership earlier this week, let's return to life under a semi-lockdown situation. Because that is what remains despite the State of Emergency being lifted at the beginning of the week. The number of daily cases in Tokyo remains low, generally under 20, occasionally single figures. 

TV Asahi Morning Show reporting on foreign reporting
of the 'Japan model' of controlling the virus,
this still of a panel about ABC Australia

There is much speculation in the foreign media about a so-called 'Japanese model', how has the country kept the cases and deaths comparatively low without the severe restrictions applied in other countries. Several businesses had to close; public facilities were also asked to close, as were universities, schools and so on. People were asked to work at home where possible, and we were offered a figure of 80%, the percentage to aim for in terms of reducing commuting traffic, contact and gathering in public. These became the figures to watch on nightly broadcasts, we were given details of percentages at key train stations, according to mobile phone data, mostly. 

Masks have become symbolic of the pandemic. Early on, panic buying saw most shops sold out of masks very quickly however, unlike toilet paper which has basically returned to the shelves, masks are still hard to come by, in the usual places. Now two or three things have happened with masks. The foreign press have reported the masks as part of the Japanese model. Japanese people have a custom of wearing masks, certainly. In previous times, those with a cold might wear one to prevent transmission to others; masks are commonly worn during hayfever season (which coincided with the emergence of COVID19 this year); I haven't worn them previously but even I have taken to wearing masks as I go about my chores. Now, they are required in public at most times. But, supplies remain low. This has resulted in two things--a 'black market', where they are sold in quantities in shops that don't normally sell them, and at exorbitant prices. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago the Abe government tried to respond to this by posting out two masks to every household. We learnt this week that less than 35% have been delivered at this stage and in some cases, some residences have received two deliveries. There was some controversy this week too when one school insisted the 'Abenomasuku', and only the Abe mask, had to be worn. 

The second 'phenomenon' worth noting has been the regionalisation and craftsmanship arising in a kind of unofficial mask competition. It emerged as various prefectural governors began to wear masks made of local materials with local markings or symbols (often supplied by constituents), perhaps to contrast with Abe's efforts. As I noted at the time on twitter (19 May), 

'Forthcoming: 'Symbolism and meaning in mask motifs--the emergent space in political symbolism and regional parochialism in a time of COVID19', 

to try and capture the sense of how masks have become quite the accessory. I still haven't managed to replenish my disposable paper masks but I have acquired a cloth, re-usable one and the materials required to make another if required. Plenty of industries have also moved to make masks, particularly in my broader community of interest, wetsuit manufacturers have made them out of wetsuit materials and the big international clothing maker, UniQlo, announced they will have some available in stores soon. 

Concerns are currently being expressed about wearing masks in summer. No doubt we will see more variations made for summer. 

The Surfing Association offers the above
advice when we return to the surf.

Now with the state of emergency lifted, but restrictions left in place, there have been some interesting changes on tv too. During the SoE, a number of panel shows had members 'zoom in' from home; some are continuing that practice this week, while others have brought their guests back into the studio. In the latter, much is made of 'distancing' on stage as well. A number of drama series which would normally continue shooting have halted production which has meant replays of earlier episodes, or completely different program. It could be seen as symbolic but it has been important I think, a constant reminder of present circumstances.

Shops continue to keep vinyl sheets between staff and customers at the registers, 2m markings and hand sanitizer at the door. Restaurants and pubs, are re-opening with precautions too. 

However, my workplace has determined that, by and large, we should continue working and teaching from home, extending our exclusion from campus until the end of July. That will be four months by the time we get to return. Perhaps. 

Thus, for the foreseeable future, little will change for me here, in my little apartment, in the Tokyo suburbs. My neighbourhood obachans remain a source of daily (brief) chats, and I do miss the wonderful women at my station kiosk, I hope they are ok. 

I'm still to venture beyond the limits of my neighbourhood, but let's see what happens by this time next week.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Asahi Shimbun reports, at 9:00pm last night (27 May) Japan recorded 16744 cases and 870 deaths. This on the day, the United States passed 100,000 deaths. How, why? That's the subject of another post, another day.

That detour continued ~~ five point five point two ~~

...and my point is?

As well you may ask.

First to what I would expect someone who might have learnt from past mistakes should do in order to 'earn' leadership credentials in the current climate.

'SnapBack' would not be part of the vocabulary or the policy planning for a start. This should be an opportunity for leaders to review and redirect budget spending, rethink the sort of society we might aspire to be. For many years, I've engaged with the concept of 'human security', security that puts people first. An early proponent was Japanese foreign policy specialist and UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Professor Ogata Sadako who passed away last year. Human Security. If we spent less time, money and energy on war and more on people, communities, health, education, social welfare and so on, we might even minimise the need for war. I introduce Prof Ogata each year to students in my Peace Studies course, very few knew a Japanese woman was at the forefront of this policy proposal.

On a road to...(Ariake district)

My particular concern with the revisionism around Morrison's 'leadership' was how quickly people seemed to almost forgive him for the debacle that was the bushfire season, the manner in which he inserted himself into the PM's position, his 'stop the boats' policy as immigration minister, indeed, the very nature of his preselection, his many faults that others have written about at length. I do not see any change in his fundamental beliefs and approach to anything, much less anything to do with politics. 'SnapBack', this idea that things will 'return to (some kind of) normal' after this pandemic, is just indicative of the ideologically-driven approach.

I've taught politics now for more years than I care to count; I have seen students learn, understand, modify their approach, change their views, in the space of two or three years. (Some who haven't either but that's for another time.)  Look across the ditch, to NZ where the leader, Jacinda Ardern, has been genuine from the start, continued through, with consistency. It is possible.

Nonetheless, his polling* numbers suggest otherwise. Indeed, a number of leaders across the world, some data suggest, are experiencing something of a boost in polls or popularity as they are given the credit for navigating the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic.

(*I use polling in a professional sense, I don't use it as indicative of politicians' popularity or otherwise.)

Now, let us turn to Japan's PM Abe. The two PMs find themselves in similar circumstances; Abe has for several years now, been battling scandals on several fronts, largely favours for friends and acquaintances, government largesse, or corruption of the sort favoured by governments of today. Any one of the various scandals in past years would have forced his resignation, but he survives. Not only has he survived, he has succeeded in having the two-year-two-term norm of the LDP presidency (and effectively the prime ministership) extended to realise a personal aspiration of being Japan's longest-serving prime minister of the modern era.

Like Morrison, Abe was slowish to respond to the initial stages and like Morrison, arguably he was pressed into action and outdone by Japan's equivalent of Australia's state premiers, prefectural governors. It was the governors, notably Koike in Tokyo, the governors of Tokyo's surrounding prefectures of Chiba, Saitama and Kanagawa (which form part of the greater Tokyo commuter region--think Brisbane-Gold Coast or Sydney-Newcastle) and also Osaka and Hokkaido. There is a comparative study worth doing there, in the future. The governors ultimately forced Abe's hand on declaring a national state of emergency so they could respond locally; Abe's policy responses were also seen as ad hoc and impulsive. Chief among them was his sudden decision to close schools, (leaving many parents in a difficult position), his 'two masks per household' policy (at great expense) and initial plans of ¥300,000 in economic assistance to those in need, quickly being redrafted to give ¥100,000 to everyone. Like Morrison's promises of monetary compensation, the 'idea' is struggling under the weight of bureaucracy to be realised. Similarly, the masks were delivered well after people found ways to improvise, indeed starting a new fashionable wave and prefectural parochialism. In fact, it turns out that nowhere near the anticipated number of masks have been delivered and some premises have received more than one delivery.

Although Abe appears in daily media conferences, people have stopped listening to him. Conversely, the 'popularity' of the governors has risen, as they have taken on stronger leadership roles. In the interim, polling for Abe has been on the slide, in contrast to Morrison. It is an interesting conundrum. Both countries have had, arguably, reasonably controlled numbers in terms of cases and deaths, neither country reaching the horrific statistics of the US, UK and others. I suspect, a mere hypothesis at this time, that the media may have a role to play. The media environments are quite different in the two countries.

Just after I tweeted the thread on Morrison, a surprising opinion poll result* turned up for Abe. At the beginning of May, his popularity was on a downward trend, sitting in the low 40s. In this past week, the Mainichi poll put his support at 27%, a dramatic drop. It is only one poll. Ironically, it appears that it is not Abe's pandemic performance that is resounding through the populace but a scandal of equivalence some might say to those earlier in his term (but then, corruption is corruption, once you start 'grading' it, you are in trouble), an attempt to extend the tenure of one of his preferred public prosecutors, in blatant disregard of the separation of powers here in Japan, a concept taught in schools (and universities, specifically mine, in my class). What was the difference this time? Interestingly, a massive twitter hashtag campaign (which warrants a post of its own) which saw key members of the government cave on the changes to the legislation. Subsequently, it turns out the prosecutor in question was caught out, against all sorts of rules, not the least of which was semi-lockdown demands, of playing and betting on mahjong, with a couple of journalists. Gone.

(*I use polling in a professional sense, I don't use it as indicative of politicians' popularity or otherwise.) (^-^)/

Will Abe be able to walk back from this one? At the moment it looks unlikely. He is also, at this stage, unlikely to resign but might see out his current term (until 2021). Unless, other unforeseen events emerge.

Like Morrison, there is hollowness about Abe's politics, his 'leadership' characteristics (one might be trying to avoid the use of 'qualities'), a product of the modern, professional political class. And yet despite the similarities in their present circumstances, their trajectories are heading in different directions, for now.

Is our politics broken? Perhaps, but not beyond repair, I would like to think, dare to hope.

Modern politicians think democracy means capturing the most votes, they justify their actions on the basis that 'we were elected, we got the votes'. Democracy however, is an ongoing process, a dialogue if you will, between voters and the people they elect. So voters too have a responsibility to keep their elected representatives accountable. It is time to reinvigorate the social contract...but that is a topic for another post.

These are notes on the way to a larger project to investigate our politics. These are the things that keep me occupied between classes and meetings, living and breathing, and spending time in a semi-lockdown environment (extended).

Thank you for arriving at this point. There is more to think about, more to come.

A slight detour during life in semi-lockdown ~five point five point one~

...a few notes on political leadership (part one)

A lot of people want to know how and why I ended up studying politics, in particular Japanese politics but politics in general. I mean, if you are going to 'do Japan', aren't there better things to do than politics?

No.

Start with 'politics', you can go anywhere. I suppose it was a bit of a strategic accident in a way. I commenced my university studies in what is now referred to quaintly as 'area studies', back when moving on to higher education meant you could explore your curiosity, learn about 'others', expand your horizons, and have it considered a positive rather than a waste of time and failure to think about a job.

(#a digression: I remember participating in one of the annual university days, when they were at the crossroads between--come to uni and study, meet the lecturers--and--university PR opportunity, ignore the academics--those times. Anyway, a rather overbearing fellow was talking to me about what he wanted his daughter to study and was saying he'd rather we taught Chinese instead of Japanese, so as I was wont to do, I spoke through him directly to his daughter and asked what interested her; she wanted to study Japanese, go to Japan, listed all the things she was interested in; I said great, I gave her a potted history of what I did over the years--teaching, living in Japan, working at DFAT, working in parliament...etc etc; her eyes lit up, her father harrumphed and said, 'well I want my daughter to have a career, not a series of jobs!' Seriously, I've never forgotten that.)

Anyway, back to that first degree. I ended up in politics for two reasons I suppose, firstly, and simply, the politics and history lecturers were the most interesting and economics, which is what I was supposed to be combining with Japanese at the time was frankly, boring. So secondly, while economics was the go-to discipline to understand Japan, I figured with so many 'Japanese and economics graduates' potentially on the horizon, I should distinguish myself from the pack. So politics it was. OK, I was more interested in Chinese politics but, since I was studying Japanese, I went in that direction. Interestingly, in those days, International Relations was considered inappropriate to study at the undergraduate level, no subjects were offered except for a final semester, final year all-round 'Australia and Asia' subject which sort of introduced us to some concepts. No, the priority in those days was learn the language, learn about the society, understand commonalities and differences, and then go on.

Thus politics has been a thread throughout all that I have done, all that I do. My first degree encouraged a comparative approach to other societies, as a way to understand our own and learn about others; it offered ways to 'reflect' on our own actions, before 'reflection' became the norm in education. I moved through postgraduate studies in International Relations, but my interest these days is to stand back from the frontlines and 'think', in the Arendtian-style, about politics--what motivates us to do, or not do, act, or not act, and so on.

Modern leadership

So it was this week, perhaps because of the time afforded during a state of semi-lockdown, I tweeted a few observations about Scott Morrison, Australia's prime minister. Much was being made about the first anniversary of the government winning the election last weekend. Now, it is no secret that the present neo-liberal approach to governing in several countries offends my sense of politics for equality, fairness and justice; I think politicians play a game where they think democracy is about capturing as many votes as possible, then ignoring the electorate for the rest of the time. I think it is much more of a two-way, ongoing process between elections, not just election day.

And twitter is a funny place. I'm there for lots of reasons but I'm always amused when a tweet about today's lunch gets more likes and RTs than my 'expert' commentary on something political but this week, for just a brief moment, a short thread I wrote garnered more tweets, comments (and new followers) than my last Friday night beer and curry tweet and given we've been in semi-lockdown for nearly two months, that is quite a while.

There were six tweets in the thread (I was even 'threadreadered'):
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Praising the PM's leadership at this point is like giving a student 10/10 for their first assignment of the semester and telling them 'no worries, you're on track for a high distinction now, sit back, relax, all the hard work is done'. Nor is it his 'leadership' alone. 1/6

The premiers have contributed in equal, if not greater amounts to get to this point. The *collective* effort here is to be noted. The PM's record until now and hereafter cannot be excluded from any assessment. I'm actually yet to see any propensity for reflection on his part. 2/6

Beware 'SnapBack', I mean who, anybody with any sort of capacity for courageous leadership, who thinks this is an appropriate way to proceed in these times. Leaders are willing to find billions to pay for endless wars, often in another's name, with no end, no 'SnapBack'. 3/6

I see no fundamental change in the PM's style or manner, much less leadership.
In the tension between journalism and academia, we acknowledge journalists are compelled to 'write the first draft of history' while those of us in the back rows have time to mull over things. 4/6

And I for one would be happy to concede all of the above and proven wrong. Maybe there will be recognition that snapping back (I mean, it even sounds sadistic, snapping legs off insects-type awfulness) to the old way will not be in the interests of society at large. 5/6

But until then, until we work our way through this, let's just temper the hype. And maybe think about redirecting that bottomless pit of defence budget to the more immediate needs of human security, a greater vision of our human potential. 6/6
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It was as much a meditation on what political 'leaders' will learn from this pandemic and wondering who among them will have the courage to reflect on what is really needed for our societies as we emerge from this. I doubt Morrison has the wherewithal to do so. He is what I would call a 'shallow' political player, one of those who chases votes but doesn't understand what he should do once he gets there (the proverbial dog that caught the car it was chasing).

In the next post, (this one ended up a little longer than I anticipated) I will look a little more closely at the Japanese and Australian political leadership in this time of semi-lockdown. While Morrison's polling has been going up, Abe's has headed south. On the surface, the respective responses (and outcomes) to the pandemic, have been similar, so why the difference in the perceptions of their leadership? And which country will be better positioned to take the next steps.

Life in a semi-lockdown scenario ~ four ~

And so it continues

And what started as a weekly reconciliation of life in a semi-lockdown scenario, has now stretched into a fortnight (or thereabouts), largely because, well, it is more of the same. Although my government-supplied masks (two of) arrived just after the last post here. The masks have been controversial, great expense, and policy with good intentions but misdirected outcomes. It will be a case study in future politics classes...I've put mine in my disaster emergency kit, when they might come in handy in the event that the big earthqu...wait, let's not go there, we've had more than a few quakeshakes in recent weeks.

A full moon this week, signifying a full month
 of life in a time of semi-lockdown. 7 May 2020

We almost reached the end of the Golden Week break (6 May), we were in the last weekend with just a few days to go, when the Government announced on Sunday 3 May that it would formally announce that (in all likelihood) the state of emergency would be extended on 4 May, which it was. As we have seen in Australia (and elsewhere, but Australia and Japan are my key interests here), the debate is shifting towards the economy vs dead people benefits, an awful discourse (and yet...) and which should take priority.  We have seen some innovation on the part of small bars and restaurants in their shift to a 'take-away' or delivery service, but a number of other retailers haven't had quite that sort of opportunity. Apart from my neighbourhood convenience store (where toilet paper is back in regular supply, though masks are not), and the supermarket precinct a little further afield, most of the other retailers in the area have closed for the duration. And that is all I have seen firsthand because I have not been on a train now for more than five, almost six weeks. 

And, just as we see in Australia, there remains a continuing tension and parry between prefectural governors (think premiers) and the prime minister and cabinet. In recent days, it has been the Tokyo and Osaka governors who continue to take the lead, leaving PM Abe following. In the meantime, he is currently subject of questioning over the extension of the retirement age for public prosecutors, in this case another 'favour for a friend', and raising doubts about the separation of powers in Japan. It follows a series of other scandals that, one would like to say have 'dogged' his prime ministership but in a worrying sign for parliamentary democracy, it seems he will escape serious retribution on this too. On the other hand, as his term is due to come to an end within the year, there does appear to be less speculation about him continuing on 'indefinitely', by extending the term for the LDP president/prime minister. 

The ¥100,000 assistance payment is now being rolled out across the country, though not without its hiccups. Like the masks, this has been a poorly improvised policy idea; as it stands, each person in a household will be entitled to ¥100,000 though it must be applied for through the 'head of the household', which generally means the male head of the family. To its credit, the media have been quick to highlight the patriarchal bias inherent in this system, also highlighting problems of families in breakdown and domestic violence (DV, as it is referred to in Japan), and people made homeless through these times. I personally would hope to see a stronger response for people in these situations, prioritised over everyone having access (including foreign residents). 

There might be too much tweeting at times

Classes continue online, and now until the end of July for the time being, making the entire first semester an 'online' experience. Students have adapted differently to the circumstances--some getting by, some liking the extended opportunity to read and think about their materials, but, worryingly, some not responding at all. This will be a key issue for us to follow up. While some are accepting this as the 'new normal, get used to it', I am more of the view that while it works for emergency purposes, for politics which demands engagement and debate, it is not an ideal situation. But I'm getting old and closer every day to retirement so no-one will care about my views. I mean, when you conduct politics online, you get twitter-driven cesspits...it is the wrong kind of socio-political distancing. 

And, in a first, the annual Constitution Day rally (3 May, a public holiday) which is normally held not far from my campus, and which I attend each year, also shifted to online this year. 

So for the time being, we remain now in a time of semi-lockdown for at least another three weeks, until 31 May. Tokyo's case numbers appeared to be going down and staying down, in double figures although we are wary, given the lengthy string of public holidays. Some questioning of methodology too, but for now, we remain hopeful we might be on the slow but sure road to an exit. 

Daily updates via twitter @psephy and #tokyolyf 

Cheers, and thanks for reading.