Sunday, October 22, 2017

Tracking Koike's Ambition 21

Tracking Koike's Ambition, Day 21, 21 October 2017

End of the road. Campaigning for tomorrow's election finishes today, by law. It is customary for all the parties to have one final rally, one final throw of the dice, to convince voters to vote for them (or just get out and vote). Previously, last rallies have been timed such that I've managed to get around to look at all of them. Not today though.

And we are done
 There was time to get to Shinjuku to see the RikkenDs and, should they be running on time, get back to Ikebukuro where Koike's Kibo no To was to rally on one side of the station and the JCP, with Ikeuchi Saori, who has really impressed me with her campaign, was set to speak. 

Unfortunately, PM Abe was set to rally at Akihabara at the same time as the JCP and Kibo... decisions, decisions. 

Add to that, the rain. It hasn't really stopped. Umbrellas get in the way of pics at rallies...

 So I got to three rallies. The RikkenDs have really picked up some momentum since their rally I attended last Saturday at Kichijoji. There were thousands waiting, in the rain, at least an hour before leader Edano was due to appear. In the end, Edano was running a bit late and I had to leave to get up to Ikebukuro in time for the other two. But I did catch Kaieda, another Democrat heavyweight and female candidate Ido. The crowd was buoyant and supportive, in spite of the weather and ranged across demographics. The RikkenDs have tapped a vein here but how that converts to votes? We will have to see tomorrow. 

Gathering crowd
Brollies everywhere
Very different atmosphere at Ikebukuro. Twenty-five minutes before Koike was due to speak, the crowd was rather thin, maybe about 100-150 loyalists waiting (also in the rain). I ducked over the other side of the station where the JCP was gathering. The JCP and the RikkenDs (along with Shamin) are cooperating to an extent in order to consolidate the anti-LDP vote. It did have some positive effects last election but I can't help but speculate that the energy of the RikkenDs has perhaps   drained some support fro the momentum the JCP gained in the last election, to start to position itself as a key opposition party. Compared with Shinjuku, the crowd was far smaller. But committed supporters were committed. I also got to hear Ikeuchi Saori, and she energised the crowd (I also got some of the rainbow merch...for research purposes of course).

View from the back of the RikkenDs
Back to the other side and Koike had arrived in her trademark green raincoat, and to be fair, the crowd had swelled quite considerably, although it was still raining. And there were many more police controlling crowd movements. This part of Tokyo is Koike's base and she made that point in part of her speech. It is where she launched her run for the Governorship last year, and it will remain key to her support when she launches her next run for higher office. Her party's drop in support (via several opinion polls this week) will have been disappointing but Koike remains an inspiration to women, if audience response and vox pops are any indication. Her challenge now will be to keep the party going and building for the next election (which is all she could realistically do this time, given she launched the party the day before the election was called; although having said that, the contrast with the similarly new party over at the RikkenDs is quite remarkable). She should also focus on getting up some success in her role as Governor. She traded on her success as environment minister (not so defence minister) in her gubernatorial campaign, for her next run at PM, a strong track record in Tokyo might shade some of her weak points. 
Communist Party truck prepares

Communist Party members speaking

Protest sign

Shii, leader of the JCP

Koike's last dance
The weather forecast as backdrop, the sun will shine again soon

Ikeuchi's merch and leaflet

Koike's last crowd

Some media at Shinjuku

And in this evening's paper, a story showing just how many kms the leaders have clocked up in 12 days: some 70,000km between them. Abe 11833km, Edano 13280 and Koike just 8392 (kind of surprising). And mostly in the rain this week. Really, you have to admire the way these people, not just the leaders but also the candidates, the volunteers, the staff, the supporters, the curious on-lookers get out and about and engage in their democratic process. It is fascinating and a privilege to watch close up. 

And now, there is just the result to wait for. Back tomorrow with a wrap up.