Tracking Koike's ambition, 7

Tracking Koike's ambition, day 7, 7 October 2017

Koike continues to be forced to deny her intention to step back to national politics but more questions continue to be asked about just who will lead the parliamentary party. Rumours today that she may have been in conversation with some former allies in the LDP about forming a coalition post-election, that would exclude Abe. Ishiba's name is being mentioned in dispatches. Ishiba, a former defence minister, is recognised as one of two frontrunners to take over from Abe (the other being former Foreign Minister Kishida). Both Ishiba and Kishida are frustrated by the frustrations cause by Abe seeking to extend his term beyond the standard two terms. The frustration is ripe for exploiting.

Koike and Abe on stage

And with policies and promises announced yesterday, Koike's Kibo no To was under fire for simply recycling her policies for this year's Tokyo Government election, under the 'Tomin First' banner ('tomin' (都民) meaning Tokyo residents). There is the problem that this makes it look like Koike might struggle to take the appeal that won Tokyo for her beyond the boundaries of the capital; on the other hand, Tomin First and Kibo no To are essentially the same thing so the criticism is a little harsh. An early iteration of the national party's name, Nippon First, was quickly hosed down given the pre-WW2 images it conjured; and Kibo no Juku was the name of the group she established to encourage people to support and engage in her politics.

Where critique is warranted is the lack of policy content and detail which, given the party has its origins in last year's gubernatorial race, is an oversight. 

And although the campaigning doesn't officially begin until Tuesday, with the formal call of candidates, all the party leaders were invited to participate in a leaders' debate with opportunity to present key points and explain their respective positions. As the only woman on stage, Koike is going to stand out. There is additional pressure and she will be juggling this round of campaigning in addition to meeting expectations (quite high) on running City Hall). 

Today was the day that the Nobel Peace Prize was announced as well. The winner was ICAN, a group which started in Melbourne and seeks the elimination of nuclear weapons. Interesting given the heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula via the tweets of the US President. PM Abe hasn't acknowledged the prize (nor Australian PM Turnbull for that matter, given its Australian origins). It made me wonder, what would Koike do as PM vis-a-vis the Korean Peninsula?

Tracking Koike's ambition, 6

Tracking Koike's ambition, day 6, 6 October 2017

After a couple of days of treading water, with party machinations seemingly playing on a loop, today saw the announcement by a number of parties of their election promises, manifestos, and policies.

We wil focus on Koike's party here. To what extent will she differentiate herself from Abe and the LDP? To what extent will the break from the Democrats be apparent?

And what elements will be, shall we say, 'uniquely Yuriko's'?

Policy announcements

With a little bit of time to assess today's announcement, there are elements which appear to be genuine attempts at policy reform, some elements which seem frivolous, almost laughing at the polity, and finally, branding this move as very much Koike's, perhaps her personal antagonism towards the LDP and especially PM Abe.

First, to what she refers to as the 'three key pillars': freezing the consumption tax (Abe continues to hedge but ultimately plans to raise it); reducing nuclear power plants to zero by 2030; and to debate constitutional revision. On this last point, while her political position suggests that revision is inevitable and desired, she has nuanced her policy to imply a level of political and public consultation that the Abe government would appear to be denying the polity. It is a clever nuance at first glance, but how well it would be implemented is quite another question. It is unlikely Koike would be open to a change of heart if the public debate went against her preferred path. 

Now to the, what shall we call them...frivolous, catchy, tidbits? With the Japanese proclivity to put 'zero' on things, part of her policy announcement included 12 'zero' policies, reducing or eliminating a list of issues which will no doubt, individually, appeal to sections of the electorate but how that kind of atomisation works as a whole? We will wait and see. 

Key among the twelve, and one which garnered the most media interest was the elimination of hayfever...good luck with that. Others include ending of crowded trains (something she is attempting at Tokyo governor, employing a similar strategy to her successful 'cool biz' strategy from her environment minister days), ending passive smoking, food loss/waste, and an end to telegraph poles (a long-held ambition of hers). 

Finally, to the branding. 'Yurinomics'. A portmanteau word of her given name 'Yuriko' and 'economics'. It is a direct response to what has become known as 'Abenomics', Abe's brand of economic reform, but also sits with historical examples of Thatchernomics, Reaganomics and the like. It suggests a petty attack on Abe (we all know of their antagonism towards each other, don't draw attention to it), it lacks imagination, it suggests, as with the precedents, a neo-liberal economic philosophy, and given Abenomics failure over the last few years, well, it suggests failure too. 

Source: Tokyo Shimbun online

Late in the day, the Tokyo Shimbun offered a graphic to illustrate where Kibo no To sits vis-a-vis the other parties. On nuclear power, it is closer to the new Democrats and Communist parties, likewise with the consumption tax. 

On constitutional revision, Kibo is closer to the LDP as expected. 

How will the electorate respond? Or rather, how will the swinging, uncommitted voters respond? There will be some difficult political choices for voters to make. The addition of 12 zeros might just be a savvy ploy to offer sweeteners to those who sit on the fence. 

As a political play, I would have almost reached for the 5-star cup but for the 'Yurinomics' call. And among the 12 zeros are a number of 'hot air balloons' which will only float away, unrealised, nay, unrealisable. 

This weekend will be busy behind the scenes as the various parties shore up their candidates before Tuesday's formal announcement. We can only 'hope', pardon the pun, that talk will turn to genuine policy debate after the scrambling for positions over the last ten days...

Tracking Koike's ambition, 5

Tracking Koike's ambition, day 5, 5 October 2017

One would never say never, but with Koike firmly ruling out, yet again, any intention to jump back to the national stage, commentators continue to wonder just what this has been all about. The pressure continues to be maintained and today she had to deflect what she called a 'love call' from Maehara to reconsider. At the smae press conference, when asked about appointing a potential parliamentary leader of the Kibo no To, Maehara, standing right next to Koike, who has just restated her position, told the media he still considered Koike to be the best candidate.

Sigh.

This is playing into the hands of the Abe Government of course and his easy call of opposition unrest and uncertainty versus his government's strength and assuredness, although as I, and many other commentators have noted, 'er, Mr Abe, we wouldn't have this uncertainty playing out quite so plainly if you hadn't called an unnecessary snap poll'...

Koike's refining of her policy position as she sifts through her candidate selection process might actually be also helping the new, renewed Democrats also define theirs. Her 'exclusion' of the so-called 'liberals' from her party has garnered support under the progressive banner and is presenting the new, renewed Dems with some momentum. This can only be good for delineating party lines given that the old Dems had become an umbrella group for disaffected, not sure where we want to stand types, a stale mix of ill-defined, perhaps undefinable policy positions. 

A comment was made today that if only the JCP, the Japanese Communist Party, could bring themselves to change their name, align with the Constitutional Dems, now that they are sharing much more common ground, then there might be a reasonable opposition to challenge the Abe government. For many it seems, the term 'Communist' despite its history in the Japanese political landscape, and despite the fact the party gave up any tenets of Marxism-Leninism years go, the term itself remains a vote loser. 

Many hanker after a more stable two-party system in Japan but it continues to remain in its historical holding patterns. 

As recriminations noted yesterday continue, more is being revealed about Koike's 'authoritarian' style within City Hall and within the party grouping. This is not an unexpected criticism of women politicians who don't 'conform' to some preconceived notion of female behaviour. I'm prepared to reserve judgement on this point for now. 

Also doing the rounds of the internet today was someone's carefully presented graphic of Koike's history of party-hopping since entering politics in the early 1990s. Again, intended as a criticism but given the ebb and flow of parties since then, perhaps not surprising. There are any number of male politicians who have similarly shifted around parties. 

Nonetheless, it is worth noting. 

Source: Twitter 

It also includes a comprehensive list of positions she has held and roles she has had along the way.

One element of this research is to ask the question 'are women politicians treated differently, and if so, how?' The answer is probably obvious. Focussing on Koike at this particular time is going to present some useful evidence I suspect. 

We are just a few days away from declaring all candidates. That will give us a clearer picture of what lies ahead for voters and the political players in this theatre we call politics. 

Tracking Koike's Ambition, 4

Tracking Koike's ambition, Day 4, 4 October 2017

People are already looking beyond the election and the recriminations are beginning to surface. Today was another day spent by Koike denying intention to stand as a candidate, doubling down on her determination to remain as governor of Tokyo. Politics as played by politicians, is a game of numbers. And while the numbers to win a majority and take government for Koike have been doubtful from the start, it seems less likely by today. Koike is right, in terms of her ambition, to stay where she is for now.

Koike and Maehara

The smooth transition of numbers and financial resources as perhaps imagined by old Dems leader Maehara hasn't happened and in fact, by some estimates, has ended up thwarting any opposition hoped of defeating the LDP. There are questions still being raised over the handling and distribution of old Dem Party funding.


Meanwhile, media attention has turned to twitter...a superficial sidetrack but one that is perhaps inevitable where it seems, the contest has been all but decided. 

Much was made of the phenomenal rise in follower numbers on the new Constitutional Dems account. It climbed very quickly past 100,000 in just a few days while Koike's party account continued to languish, barely making it to 3,000. Not to be overlooked though is Koike's personal account @ecoyuri, which has almost half a million followers. 

Has Koike done the right thing if her ambition is to do damage to the Abe-led LDP? If we were to accept the idea that her plan was to win, win big and become prime minister in this short amount of time, then, obviously not. Events have not panned out in a way that fits that level of ambition. If, however, we offer the alternate proposal that this was always going to be a two-act drama, played out post-2020 Olympics, then perhaps Koike has taken the first necessary, and perhaps untidy, steps in orchestrating the transition. Interesting, the three recent Tokyo Governors--Koike, Masuzoe and Ishibashi--have straddled both the national and gubernatorial stages, switching between Parliament and City Hall as their political whims demanded. 

Koike succeeded last year largely on the back of convincing voters she had a successful track record as minister, notably introducing the 'Cool Biz' phenomenon, which ended years of wearing suits in summer, making it OK to takes off your suit coat and roll-up your sleeves, literally. As Environment Minister at the time, a major objective was to reduce use of aircon and the like, thus 'helping the environment'. In her tenure as Governor thusfar, she had either dithered or deliberated (depending on your point of view) and come up with a compromise solution to the complex issue of the transfer of Tsukiji fish markets to Toyosu. It took up nearly all of her first year in office. 

To skip back to the national arena now, after such a short time in City Hall would not augur well for people's trust in politicians (which is not that high) and only feed their cynicism (conversely, rather high). 

More sustained policy action will bolster her chances, next time.

Tracking Koike's Ambition, 3

Tracking Koike's Ambition, Day 3, 3 October 2017

Today was overshadowed by yet another gun massacre in the US, in Las Vegas. With some 60 dead and over 500 injured, the machinations of Japanese politics seem a little less important today. 

But the body politic is starting to take some shape and pundits were today a little more confident in their assessments, their analysis, their commentary. Koike was also due to announce her first tranche of new party members following meetings and interviews. The decision was held over from yesterday. Koike herself has said she is aiming for 233 candidates to have a good shot at the ruling LDP.

The announcement was made mid-afternoon, Tokyo time, that 192 people had made the cut, 100 from the old Dems. In this forthcoming election, 465 seats, across a combination of single member constituencies and party-list proportional seats, in the one House. 

The party remains confident of reaching its goal, though just where these candidates will come from, remains to be seen. It was revealed that party hopefuls had to pledge adherence to a 8 or 9 point 'policy agreement' (according to two versions floating around social media) as well as rumours of substantial 'donations' and expenses to be covered by the candidate. This is not surprising, given that Koike's party simply doesn't have the national organisation or financial resources to run a national campaign. 

Today's media and books by and about Koike

The policy pledge was evidence of just where the Party of Hope is situating itself on the spectrum, and that is closer to the LDP than perhaps voters considering Koike might like. It explicitly states support for security and debate on amending the Constitution. (There was also a policy about retaining opposition to foreign nationals--residents--gaining voting rights in local level elections.) 

But today will also be noted as the day Koike pinned her prime ministerial ambitions, and political capital, to the wall. She came out categorically '100%' not intending to stand for election this time. There is just a week left before nominations close. Today's declaration doesn't rule her out, they are just words after all, but to about face on this commitment would expend political capital and severely damage her run. Or people might also just dismiss it cynically as 'typical politician' deception. Her running or not running, has made for easy media grabs for members of the government goading her to run. It is cheap politics. (For Queensland readers, it has that same feel of LNP opposition members goading the Premier to call an election date...but I digress.)

We also had the vision of PM Abe today taking the moral high ground condemning the opposition for failing to offer the electorate serious policy choices, instead floundering in turmoil over who is with whom...as I and others pointed out, perhaps the fault actually lies with a PM who called the snap election, unnecessarily. However, with a splintering opposition, rather than galvanising their efforts as was anticipated a week ago, PM Abe might just find himself a stronger position as campaigning proceeds. 

There was also the vision of Komeito leader Yamaguchi publicly backing the Abe government (in which it is the junior coalition member), this is despite the Tokyo Metropolitan Komeito group siding with Koike in her July victory. It only fuels voter cynicism.

Another reason that Koike might be ruling out a run this time, for now, is that opinion polling, apart from the usual scattered results at this stage, are not showing quite the boost that Koike might have hoped for. In a social media-hyped world, a curious and not at all scientific indicator, the respective twitter accounts of the brand new/old Constitutional Democrats gained tens of thousands of followers within hours of establishing their account; after six days, Koike's party account failed to reach 2000 followers (late this afternoon). Meaningless, of course, except where perception is everything...

Koike's party still needs numbers, it still needs candidates and it needs financial resources. They thought simply soaking up the Maehara Democrats would address those issues. But as Koike's policy leanings came more to the fore, several Maehara Dems simply couldn't, wouldn't trade their political cache. This is one small spanner in Koike's grand plan. She seems unwilling to compromise (a weakness for any leader, really). And early this evening, with tv images of Koike floating apparently seamlessly between governor duties and party business, two members of her gubernatorial team, elected just in July,  announced their intention to split from the party citing 'dictatorial' management style and oversight. Perhaps there is more to come of that. 

A pivotal day for Koike. Her declaration to remain governor of Tokyo but lead the Party from outside the parliament is a big call. It happened once before, in my home state in Queensland, Australia. It heralded a big win one election, and a devastating loss the next...will this be a precedent of sorts for Koike? Tomorrow is another day.

Tracking Koike's Ambition, 2

Tracking Koike's Ambition, Day 2, 2 October 2017

Yesterday, the momentum was all Koike's. The effectively disbanded Democrats, despite some reservations from the more liberal elements, were expected to fold into the new Party of Hope. But between finishing yesterday's post and about lunchtime today, Koike's desire for power and control apparently over-rode her pragmatism. It soon became clear that she was going to be very hands-on in selecting successful wannabe candidates. The candidates were going to have to toe a rather conservative line after all on security matters, for example, and constitutional reform. 

Koike announcing a delay in candidate selection to journalists this evening

Critics offered that this didn't offer much differentiation from the LDP. Her conservative stance, nay, insistence on these policy pillars, saw the more liberal elements of the extinct Democrats scamper for higher ground. By mid-afternoon, party moderate Edano held a media conference to announce a new/old Democrat Party, the Rikken Minshuto (立憲民主党); this had the effect of reclaiming 'Minshuto' rather than 'Minshinto' of a brief yet ultimately ill-fated amalgamation of previous parties, but political historians were rather more intrigued by the use of 'Rikken', meaning 'constitutional', as a prefix for the Democrats. 'Rikken' was previously used in the early years of Japan's parliamentary democracy, in the 1890s; indeed, just as we were thinking we were seeing a repeat of 1993, in fact we were travelling back to 1893...

It now means the disbanded Democrats have three options: run as independent, win at the lottery that appears to be the Koike selection process, or stick with the new/old/liberal Democrats. 

It also means voters have more options and that doesn't augur well for a 'united' opposition to mount a successful run at the Abe Government. 

A couple of early polls done overnight are not promising for Koike's raid either. An Asahi TV poll this evening has some 72% of voters declaring they wouldn't think it would be a good thing if she jumped the Governor's ship to catch the cruiser back to national parliament. She still needs to be assured of numbers (at least 233 candidates at present estimates; needing all her candidates to win their seats) to have any 'hope' of gaining power. An NHK poll (like the ABC in Australia, but considered rather pro-government, had support for the LDP at 30.8%, a drop in the previous numbers; support for Koike's party at just 5.4%; the other parties barely limped in between 3.9% and 0.3%, though it couldn't include the new/old Democrats at the time of the poll. We'll await the next one...

She would be best to use this election as an opportunity to establish a decent base from which to launch her prime ministerial ambitions next time. 

Significant in Japanese polls however, especially for an Australian audience, is the respondents who don't support any particular party. This can extend to no voting intention, not interested, haven't decided, may or may not vote. In Japan, voting is not required. The turnout typically over the last few elections sits in the low 50%. Whereas the LDP continues to have a dedicated group of voters, the non-LDP voters range from the passionate few who will also vote to the others who won't. This is nearly always advantage LDP. On the other hand, a shrewd opposition has a bounty of the uncommitted vote to harvest.

Koike doesn't hide her ambition. For every potential supporter who sees in her a determined, strong-willed woman, there will equally be another who finds her demeanour too steely, too difficult to gauge. Older men tend not to like that. Women do. The gender gap is wide. 

Today, compared with yesterday, Koike probably faltered a little in her run. The speculation over whether or not she will quit the Governorship and make her run for Parliament dominated commentary today. Rumours abounded that she was charging potential candidates a quite substantial sum to take promotional photos with her for election posters; very few contemporary political leaders get through that kind of 'money-grab' unscathed. Also making a play was the language she used to describe those from the Democrats who won't make the cut, 排除 (haijo), to exclude, or to rule out. Some were suggesting Maehara, the Democrats leader, might have been played for a fool ... maybe. Such is Koike's sassy. Or ruthlessness.

The common goal of the opposition including, for the time being, Koike's group, is to unseat the Abe Government. Today was one of those splinter days that will take some regrouping. I expect to see some of that tomorrow. 

Tracking Koike's Ambition 1

Tracking Koike's Ambition 1

This will be a blog within the blog. Japan is in election mode (again) and the stakes are quite high. PM Abe, seeking to take advantage of a dishevelled opposition, called a snap election last week. It has almost immediately backfired for him. Or maybe not. 

The opposition parties have held all the attention this past week, not in the least, the machinations of Koike Yuriko, presently Governor of Tokyo but with clear ambition to take up the leading role of Prime Minister of Japan. One day. 

On Thursday last week, I was interviewed by Eleni Psaltis of Australia's ABC NewsRadio for her Japan podcast. I feared that by the end of the interview, events had moved so quickly that the content might be immediately dated. Having thought about it, and given the ambition of Koike, I have decided to set aside some time each day to try and pen some observations. 

I have observed Koike's political career since her entree in the early 1990s, drafted by Hosokawa for one of the new opposition parties. Her strategy last year to leave the national political arena to run (and win) the governorship of Tokyo can only be seen in the context of her prime ministerial ambitions. The lure of being Governor at the time of the Tokyo Olympics in 2020 is surely quite strong; and yet, will the sniff of prime ministerial opportunity see her expend political capital (as governor) for naked ambition?

She has seen electoral success at the Tokyo metropolitan level, candidates associated with her group enjoyed resounding success at the elections in July. Can this be replicated at the national level? Koike is not 'populist' in the sense of the word as it is parlayed at present: she is not drawing on a block of disaffected, underemployed, hyper-nationalist people in the way Trump or Pauline Hanson exploit. She is conservative, in the style of Theresa May, perhaps, or Julie Bishop, in Australia, but not so ideological that she couldn't change her mind on policies as the breeze determines. A member of the right-wing nationalist Nippon Kaigi (a group with similar influence in Australia would be the IPA), she has supported constitutional reform, stronger militarisation and resumption of nuclear power plants...and yet, her first policy announcement last week included a policy of fading out nuclear power plants. 

Koike's party is the 'Kibo no To', Party of Hope. The ailing Minshinto, the Democrats, have effectively disbanded, encouraging members to stand with Koike's party. 

But not so fast.

Some Democrat Party members have criticised fairly new leader Maehara for dissolving the party this way; for Maehara, it was an option seen as 'the only way to defeat the Abe Govt'. In the last 48 hours though, Koike has made it clear that she has a list of people who will be suitable to join the party and a list considered 'too liberal'. In his haste for a Faustian bargain (for Maehara, a chance at riding Koike's popularity wave, for Koike, a national network of candidates where previously she has been limited to the Tokyo region) Maehara may well have created a schism too divided to be effective. 

There will be much to tease out until the night of the election, three weeks from today, 22 October. In addition to having followed Koike's career for many years, this work is the subject of a grant application which will seek to understand the environment in which women in Japan engage in politics at the national level. If journalists write the first draft of history, I suppose academic bloggers writing daily posts might well be trying to imitate that craft while waiting for the theoretical and analytical overlay to kick in. 

These posts will, by their very nature, be observational for the time being. Here, I simply want to record this election campaign as it unfolds; thinking out loud and posting at the same time. 

It seems like a moment is here. And it is worth watching at close quarters.